Greek banks are experiencing a remarkable surge in loan disbursements, with net credit expansion projected to reach an impressive €10-12 billion by the end of 2026. This surge marks one of the highest performances in the last 15 years, according to Axia-Alpha Finance's analysis. The driving force behind this growth is twofold: the disbursements of the Recovery and Resilience Fund (RRF) resources and the innovative financing tools from the Hellenic Development Bank (HDB).
The RRF's resources are fueling large and medium-sized investment projects, providing a much-needed boost to the economy. Simultaneously, the HDB's new generation of financing tools is leveraging important capital for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), with an expected €2 billion managed from the RRF's unused resources. This dual approach is creating a strong pipeline of projects, particularly in the tourism, energy, and shipping sectors, where businesses are increasing investments and financing new projects to bridge the large investment gap of the previous decade.
Axia-Alpha Finance's prediction of an average annual loan growth rate of around 8% in the 2026-2028 period further underscores the sustained nature of this development. The analysis also highlights that this growth is not temporary, as the Greek economy is still in the phase of restarting bank lending after years of deleveraging during the financial crisis. Despite the formal end of the RRF, the pipeline of projects remains robust, indicating a continued demand for loans.
The estimated transfer of €2 billion from the RRF to the HDB is expected to act as a safety net for mature investment projects that were not selected for funding, primarily from the pool of SMEs. This transfer will ensure that these projects can still secure the necessary financing, contributing to the overall credit expansion and economic growth. The large and medium-sized investment projects that were left out of the RRF, with a total budget of €9 billion, will also be financed through conventional bank lending or other financing tools, further supporting the credit expansion in 2026 and 2027.
In summary, the Greek banking sector is witnessing a significant and sustained credit expansion, fueled by the RRF and HDB's innovative financing tools. This growth is expected to have a positive impact on the economy, particularly in sectors like tourism, energy, and shipping, where businesses are increasingly investing and financing new projects. As the Greek economy continues to recover, the credit expansion will play a crucial role in driving economic growth and development.
